Showing posts with label Arsenal. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Arsenal. Show all posts

Wednesday, August 30, 2017

Arsene Wenger will reign very soon

In our last look at the English Premier League, we looked at the blind faith of the Manchester United fans that they are already champions. Three matches on, they amassed 9 out of 9 points, scoring 10 goals in the process. Maybe they have a case.

Chelsea fans, like those elsewhere in AC Milan, F.C Porto and Real Madrid, know when it is time to celebrate when Jose Mourinho is in the house. So the Red Devils can really be forgiven to celebrate this early.

My take is this; All the teams and coaches always revered and feared a JM coached. They feel intimated and inferior. The Man U performance thus far makes all their opponents afraid, and very afraid. This makes United's job half complete.

There is a Romelu Lukaku and Marcus Rushford factor. Martial is an evergreen thread and De Gea is solid. If one tries to look at the possible loopholes in that team, it may take you a season to find one. Team spirit and teamwork are matched by a complete and satisfying work ethic from everyone. I feel Ibrahimovic will come in to give more stability to the coach's attacking options.

We predicted a good performance from Arsenal and then a revolt from the Gunners fans. However, we did not anticipate these events to be so close to each other and to come so soon. Arsene Wenger did not convince many in that English Premier League season opener against Leicester City. 

The match was easy on the eye by devoid of tactical maturity and class. We were skeptical in joining the celebration party after that match. The latest demolition job by Liverpool proved us right in saying that Arsenal has very good players but the worst ever team in the league.

The players' body language was the easiest book to read. Wenger can not do anything positive to that team at all. High profile players like Mezuit Ozil looked mentally broken. The rest were extremely fragile. Alexis Sanchez, who wanted out did not look the part. Actually, Arsenal should have let him go.

No one can question Arsene's football brain and his stubbornness, but we still believe in miracles and that the man still has a little pride, no matter how small. If we are right, the man will resign next week. And in that case, a strong coach with a high reputation will come and transform dressing room mentality and attitude and maximise that team's potential.

Let assume we are wrong and the Frenchman stays on, what then can save the Gunners? Simple. Sell the entire squad and get young, cheap, naive and easy to manipulate professional who can 'yes Sir' Wenger. Otherwise, Arsenal will be in the relegation battle for the majority of the season.

This story has a flip side. A disappointing Liverpool pulled out a shocker in walloping a hapless Arsenal and suddenly, Jurgen Klopp seems to be the man. Our prediction was that the Reds are a spent force who did not need Coutinho now. 

With Barcelona throwing cash like confetti at Liverpool, the Merseyside giants should gladly cash in and bank the money. There is not much need to get into the market for them now. Their followers think there is a need for a centre back and central anchoring midfielder. We have not analysised or seem possible candidates for that matter, so it is a question of the German's taste and so far, we are failing to enter his taste buds.

May we temporarily apologise our questioning of the longevity of his gengen pressing in this season. There is a temptation to say Arsenal were naive in any case, but giving credit where it is due, many duels were won in high pressing areas leading to the goals. 

If we take a microscopic look, we would say it is early days. The good thing is that the Sedio Mane instincts look intact as this moment and all hope that his injuries will be minimum. Daniel Sturridge needs to be mentioned as he did what he usually does when he comes in from the bench. And again, he needs a much more injury free season than anyone in the world's five top leagues.

As one of the greatest symphasisers of Tottenham Hotspur, there was not a single attempt to give an excuse for the use of Wembley Stadium. Maybe we should have. White Hart Lane always presented a thread even before the match started. At the current rate, as opposed to the intimidation of the current Manchester United bullishness, Spurs are vulnerable to every Jack and Jill. All teams feel they have a chance against them at Wembley. 

Mauricio Poccetthino's boys will be feeling tired soon if the results do not come early enough. We mentioned one serious factor for them on day one. As long as Harry Kane is not finding the net, his frustration will work against the team and his confidence. Delle Ali also needs to have his game a notch up when Kane is firing blanks.

There is no doubt that in Moussa Dembele and Victor Wanyama, they have one of the strongest central midfielders in the world today, but without the crazy scampering on the wings of Danny Rose and Kyle Walker, the load will remain against them after the completion of each swing attack.

Let us see what Manchester City brought to the table so far. I see a better team than last season, but definitely, nothing to make us think they are better than Chelsea and United. Even with their target, Alexis Sanchez, it would be hard to see how the set-up could influence the title in their favour. 

Rumour has it that they intended offloading Jesus Navas and a few other players to the Gunners for the South American. Theoretically, the possible combination with Sergio Aguero should be hair-raising but Pep Guardiola can mess up a good stew and turn it into biter medicine at the click of a finger. City is a team that has already hit the ceiling. They may reinvent themselves and get rejuvenated but there is not much excitement in that squad.

Finally, as Chelsea strolled through the park, they picked up easy points. Could it be that all teams will jst bend over for a spanking? Maybe there is so much respect for Antonio Conte, but that easy win versus Everton worked for and against them. The good thing was that they picked up points without hitting top gear, basically on a rest day.

The negative aspect of that situation is a loss of top match fitness. Managing that situation going forward will be critical as to how long The Blues catch up the rest of the league in match fitness. At the beginning of the season, one prefers being stretched to the limit and prevail, and that momentum carries you in buoyant and quiet times in the season. 

We are tempted to make more predictions based on tactical analysis of what transpired so far. Indicators prove that our first article on the matter was over 80 % correct up to Match 3. The league may still welcome few great names of the game from other major leagues, and that may change a lot, but frankly, we see no major changes.

Paul Pogba, Marcus Rushford, Martial, Mane, Cesc Fabregas, Ali, Kane, Aguero will determine the destination of the league. 

At the bottom, new boys will kiss the league goodbye.

Monday, August 14, 2017

Manchester United are champions already - to their fans

(Romelu the man - Getty Images)
Manchester United are champions already - to their fans, but there are 37 more matches to play, and they will not West Ham United every weekend.

There is a reason to believe they can go all the way. 

Except for Chelsea fans, everyone knows what Romelu Lukaku scores when he wants. 

Besides, coach Jose Mourinho is known to have a little horse, give it a little milk and it wins the race the next season. JM is not The Special One for nothing and you do not have to like him.

Nemanja Matic proved an asset all know he can be, touching the ball more than any player in the Man U 4-0  win over the Hammers.

The English Premier League season started with a scintillating Arsenal versus Leicester City, with seven marvelous goals and a reasonable pace of the game to match - a 4-3 win for the Gunners.

Amongst much exciting news around the new 2017/18 season, Wayne Rooney scored on his second Everton debut as the Toffees beat Stoke City 1-0, Lukaku scored a double, Matic won the man of the match in his Man U debut and his former club, Chelsea - the champions, lost their opener 3-2 against Burnley.

Disappointing as it may, Jurgen Klopp's Liverpool drew 3-3 in their first league match against Watford while Tottenham Hotspur and Manchester City convincingly won 2-0 their matches over Newcastle United and Brighton and Hove Albion respectively.

As much as every fan feel their team has the capacity to lift the EPL in May 2018, Man U feel like it is done and dusted and what makes it a solid case is the fear the whole league fears after Paul Pogba also came to the party.

Marcus Rushford was something else and United looked solid and strolled after their third goal, but Manchester City seems to be playing the way the coach ever wanted. 

Arsenal looked a familiar 4th place contender, with the team playing as flat as ever, only different players. Arsene Wenger can be assured of the 'Wenger must go' campaigns very soon. 

Klopp will have a few headaches to nurse as the sting of his tactics have been blunt and seem to be easily neutralized by the English physicality of the game.

Mauricio Pochettino has the same young squad with pace and purpose. Whether they gained enough experience and can challenge for the title will have to depend on the form and fitness of Dele Alli and Harry Kane.

The Spurs advantage is the ability to turn on the style when needed but this is a new season, the fact that the Hurricane did not find the net on Day One is a psychological hump. 

Chelsea seems to be more rugged than fluent in their approach and much will depend on their flexibility as the going gets tough.

I wish I could say much about Leicester City, who kept a core of key players in the league but may lose Jaime Vardy soon, and West Ham who acquired some of the best and experienced footballers around.

May I say as much as I am seduced by Man U, their fans have to chill. Man City is the real deal. Chelsea will be back. Tottenham is still the team to beat.

There is a token challenge from Liverpool and Arsenal and nothing else. Lukaku will be a top scorer without a doubt.

We will unpack the league with a little detail next week.

Let me see if you agree with me that Wenger will fail dismally and finally get fired.

Friday, June 2, 2017

The 2017 Football Clubs' Evaluation

Is your favourite football club worth its salt? Let us roll.

The international auditing company, KPMG, recently released their second edition of the “Football Clubs’ Valuation: The European Elite 2017. In a publication  by Andrea Sartori, Partner KPMG Global Head of Sport, it looked at the Enterprise Value (EV) of the 32 most prominent European football clubs as at 1 January 2017.

Real Madrid CF and Manchester United shared top spot last year. However, Man U stand clearly at the top of the 2017 ranking, enjoying a 7% EV increase compared to Real's 2% growth - more than EUR 100 million.

This represents a record EUR 3 billion threshold despite missing UEFA Champions League qualification at the end of the 2015/16 campaign, The Red Devils continued to achieve consistent off-the-pitch performance.

The top four clubs surpassed the EUR 2 billion landmark. FC Barcelona and Bayern Munich are third and fourth, the later's 14% increase narrowing the gap with the Catalans.

The supplied data confirmed that top 10 clubs comprised more than two-thirds of the overall EV. Manchester City FC overtook Arsenal FC in 5th position.

The best part is that Tottenham Hotspur FC ousted Paris Saint German FC from the 10th position, thus increasing the number of English teams in this top ranking to six, together with two Spanish, one German and one Italian.

This has been attributed to the strength of the English Premier League, combined with their good operating and financial results.

Spurs are displaying a significant upward trend, especially in terms of profitability and squad value, as demonstrated by a higher EV growth (26%), and their future looks very bright as they plan to move to a new multipurpose stadium, and as they have recently secured UEFA Champions League qualification for the second year in a row.

Only Juventus FC remained the Italian club in the Top 10, with a 24% EV growth. In terms of growth per se, Olympique Lyonnais score the best result (+71%), followed suit by Galatasaray SK (+68%) and Sevilla FC (+44%).

Leicester City FC, in probably the greatest sporting fairy-tale of all time, when lifting the English Premier League crown in 2015/16, earned a remarkable 16th position in the report, whose analysis does not consider the business and sporting results achieved by each club in the 2016/17 football season.

"The proprietary algorithm developed by KPMG and applied for the purposes of this report is consistent with the one applied last year. It is based on the Revenue Multiple approach, where each club’s revenues are multiplied by a specific multiple which takes five metrics into account—each one with a specific weight—expressing differences between clubs, the markets and the economies in which they operate", says the report.

Amounts of broadcasting revenues and their distribution method play a crucial role in the income generation potential of football clubs, with a significant impact on European clubs’ EV.

Few difficult challenges factored in the making of the report included the differences in accounting practices across countries, differences in reporting currencies, fluctuation of exchange rates and differences in financial year-ends.

Sunday, April 13, 2014

UEFA Champions League draw twinned the football styles

What if I put it to you, that Arsenal's Arsene Wenger will not resign any time soon unless he wins the FA Cup. Can we accept it as a fact that if, and only if that happens, he will resign immediately as he will not entertain an embarrassing exit from the club that he took to dizzy heights and was credited with revolutionising the English game after his arrival in London almost two decades ago. Her Majesty, the Queen of England has done enough to hold her horses in knighting a man who once deserved the accolade, but has been questioned by many after his extended success-drought spell. Statistically, Wenger's numbers surpass those of Sir Alex Ferguson, but SAF won what mattered the most in over 30 matches.

This is just to warm our appetite for the Gunners' lucky break if reaching yet another FA Cup final, a fluke if you ask me. Let us stop analysing the UEFA Champions League. First and foremost, Manchester United's elimination ends their season early. The Red Devils had just hit a purple patch in all competitions but that loss kills any fight in them. There is no incentive to go on as they will officially miss Europe's top competition, the biggest club competition in the world for the first time in decades. Anyway, that is an Old Trafford problem.

It is common knowledge that Barcelona hordes the ball, but of late, the wheels are coming off their wagon. They are third in the league after their elimination from the Champions League by Athletico Madrid. I wish to combine Athletico's win with the victory Chelsea enjoyed. This is due to the interesting fact of their similar styles. They rely on a grafting work ethic that proves toil never fails. More so, whenever possible their go direct and quickly. This has been the rise of German teams. Theirs can not be deemed route one football, but they duel and combat at every situation and grind the results. There is little nice about their display but then, if it pays, why not.

Many have taken Jose Mourinho's cry that he has no strikers. That is very untrue as he has, but his plans exclude them. In Samuel Eto'o, Demba Ba and Fernando Torres, he has men who come on the field and perform their duties and leave, mercenary style. They are at his disposal and they never fail, but The Special One does not want things that way. The indulgence of having the versatile Hazard and Oscar and the hard work of Willian makes Jose think that he can play and win matches with the three. The rest of his line-up become accessories to complement the trio. The interesting thing about him is that he is never afraid to cut and chop at anytime and for whatever reason. He may decide to stick with his plans no matter how fruitless. He has guts to stop a working scenario and try something new. Like him or not, he does not care about criticism. He is a risk taker, and usually a good one.

The Barcelona football has always delivered a cut high in terms of class. Somehow, when I told you that Barca are finished, I got ridicule. Their fall did not start yesterday. Their football is getting more square and sterile. They used to have penetrative pace longitudinally at their peak, but they are getting flatter and flatter. Their most influential players in Xavi and Iniesta have more passes to the side and back than forward. They now play the football that Arsenal played when the Gunners thought they played lie Barcelona. Despite the cutting edge of Messi and Neymar, the offensive dimension is stunted by the extra passes and more importantly, lack of space for the two to use. Both players thrive on running towards defenders with the ball at high pace. They dribble and leave defenders for dead like tornadoes. One can argue the quality of the coach. That type of football needs excessive concentration. That is why Bayern Munich can pull it off for now, because they are German.

For Munich, it is obvious that their players enjoy a small variation to what they did before Pep Guardiola arrived. He introduced a little more patience with the ball, but they were always a team that kept the ball well and took shots a pass or two earlier with each attack. This tactics works well if the attacking confidence is high and gets complimented by the calm finishing. As soon as goals dry, as in the Barca case, this can be fatal. The Spanish giants now need serious attention, an overhaul. Their attack is getting blunt, frustrated and unproductive.

In my assessment of Athletico and Chelsea, I mentioned some directness of their football. Real Madrid are extremely direct but their game is complimented by pace. As soon as Cristiano Ronaldo and Gareth Bale get on their bikes, no scooter can catch them. Their downfall is their careless defending. The chief culprit is Ramos. Pepe complements his antics well too. With a little cool heads at the back, they would play a sustainable type of game with ease. Real Madrid depend on sound absorbance of pressure and as their opponents push forward, they leave reasonable space between their last defenders and the goalkeeper. It is that space that the scampering Bale and Ronaldo will attack with the ball to great effect. This becomes the exact difference between Real and Barca. Real attacks the space by utilising it with excellent running with the ball technique while Barca. depend on running at the defenders with the ball in tight spaces.

The Bayern Munich way would be classified as the Barca way with a tint of the Madrid football. Given that the Germans were drawn against Real Madrid, it makes it an interesting pairing that will give the Spanish some advantage somehow. With Bayern though, their attack is not as narrow as that of Barcelona. Ribery and Robben stretch the game wide and they come at high pace, Ribery going wide and sometimes to the by-line for the cross while the Dutchman will drift in from the right, drop a shoulder and curl the ball around the goalkeeper inside the far post. Still, they take an extra pass before an attempt at goal. There is likely to be more aggressive attack with entertaining outcome here that in the other semi-final where grit will outwit grit.

The best part of the draw is that we will be exposed to extreme types of football in the final. That is the solid game of either Chelsea or Athletico and the direct and clinical Real or Bayern approach. Either style has its own pros and cons but the interesting thing will be how useful the coaches use the tools at their disposal.

Monday, March 31, 2014

Backlays Premier League wholly in Liverpool's feet

Oh boy did Liverpool turn up the heat and top the league once more since that Christmas period, and in what style. One can be forgiven for taking an excitement at the bottom end of the table, but who can blame you given the performance of Aston Villa and Crystal Palace against Chelsea last week and this week, and a scare Fulham gave to Everton? At least up to 34 points, any team can still be sucked in there. The Cottagers were denied by the heroics of Tim Howard to dispatch Everton. Palace could have put away 4 clear balls past Petr Cech.

At least Arsenal turned up and put up a fight against real contenders in Manchester City. They gave us a show that was displayed by Manchester United against Aston Villa earlier on. Villa were also victims of their finishing as the usually lethal Cristian Benteke was lethargic. United's 4-1 win was refreshing just to shake up the mid-table fight with poor Tottenham Hotspur and Everton.

The Liverpool 2-1 win over Sunderland made me feel I was watching champions. For the first time, the Reds feel they have their destiny at their feet. They carry themselves around the pitch like they have won it already and that should worry City. It may be easy to think Chelsea are out, but as with Arsenal, their story is still being told. The Kop was that cathedral of football of old as they slaughtered hapless Tim Sherwood's sorry Spurs.

When it come to the Gunners, I always preached my stale gospel of Benteke. I used to drive the Demba Ba version too. Let me be fresher; Arsene Wenger should shop for Mousa Dembele from Spurs. His usefulness under Tim Sherwood has passed its sell-by date as did Emmanuel Adebayor under AVB. He is the solid Patrick Viera they have lacked in years. Mikel Arteta  is a good holding player who can have a role elsewhere in that team. He may be released to forward positions where he can score as he did at Goodson Park.

As for the log leaders, they now impose their play and their attitude is one of arrogance and bullying, synonymous with champions. They have their records but we are for the analysis here. We think it could be decided by the visit of Man City to Anfield. Many factor Chelsea but The Reds do not need to beat Chelsea if they can overpower City and win the remaining fixtures. It is in their own hands, I meet feet.

Wednesday, March 5, 2014

Liverpool may surprise us

Chelsea top the Backlays English Premier League after a second hat trick in weeks from yet another midfielder. Edin Hazard his last time around and this week was Andre Schurle. The Blues are enjoying a purple patch and coach, Jose Mourinho still want us to believe that his team are a work in the process, a cake in the oven, a baby racing horse still suckling and being prepared for the race. He admits they will receive the league if handed to them in a platter. If you believe that, lucky you. I am not buying that one. If that is to be taken seriously, then Chelsea would win the next league title by Christmas.

That 3 goal salvo at Fulham was stained by conceding. The comfort on the summit of the table was made sweet courtesy of the flop by the fragile Arsenal's loss to Stoke City. Not that Stoke are easy taking and not that the Gunners are pushovers. Other teams will have their turn to throw away points like confetti too. The absence of Manchester City's league match left them three points and two matches adrift and have a superior goal difference. Until the outstanding matches are played and won, they count for nought.

It must be said that the Citizens enjoyed that league break with the League Cup victory over Sunderland who threatened to upset the tycoons. I was just commenting about ruing the lost chances and explain to a friend how City can turn a single goal deficit and pounce in quick succession. In no time, he was telling me of a 'couch potato' curse.

The story that has been doing rounds for seasons now, has been Liverpool. For the first time since around 2005, the story is a good one to tell. Earlier this season, they topped the table and many thought they were flattering to deceive. I think they are now second to stay. The Reds came to the party in the new 2013/2014 with basically a 'kidsnet'. Their line-up included few veterans of note Skrtl and Toure Kolo, a reject in Dan Sturridge and a 'rehabitatee' in Luis Suarez. A relatively unknown Bredan Rogers did not make it any predictable even though he had turned Swansea's play into an enviable carpet football many teams dream of, and having worked as an assistant to Jose Mourinho.

There is about 30 points to fight for this season, 36 for City. That means a potential finish of 93 for both. City's current surplus of 42 goals compared to Chelsea's 30 puts them a notch ahead. The recent form of both is a little of a contrast. Chelsea have been consistent and quite sharp in finishing while the blue side of Manchester flopped against mediocre opposition including that loss to the Blues.

How we come this far without factoring Arsenal in a league they dominated at the beginning of the season for the first time in years is very surprising. Their season might be inverted. They looked very strong and solid when they scored and kept clean sheets. They were championship contenders until Aaron Ramsey got injured. He is one man who was winning the tile for the Gunners. With him went a resurgent Theo Walcott. Somehow, they seem to be ending the season the way they begin it. They could win it but I would not put a dime on them. All I can see in them is their duel with Spurs and Everton for fourth. In that one, they can prevail.

Liverpool may actually surprise us. They have some steel to steal it, especially as the duel of City and Chelsea gets dirty. Tightening a screw or two at the back, they are in the mix with the other two expensively assembled giants. 

Monday, February 24, 2014

Whose title is the English Premier League 2013/2014?


Here are the numbers meant to confuse the neutrals and give hope to the fanatics. Plenty twists and turns are in store as the count down to the end of the season begins. As much as they say figures do not lie, I do not believe the current status of the table and believe me, this picture will be different when the curtain comes down. Our predictions always set Manchester City to top the league with Chelsea and Arsenal depuitsing either jointly or separately. There is little doubt that Liverpool will be in the Champions' League next season as the fourth team on the log. 

The form and performance of City is a huge worry at the moment but the return of Aguero soon will see them stop behaving like senior citizens, and Chelsea seem to be getting the results but are not convincing at all. They get the points week in and week out almost singing the blues but for how long? As for the fragility of Arsenal, it is there for all to see. On their day, as seen by the Rosicky goal, they can gun down anyone with the ease of a hot knife through butter, but who can forget that drubbing at Anfield? The Reds' form is receiving a decent rub from lady luck despite Luis Suarez not netting prolifically as we know him to. As his goalscoring form picks up, Liverpool will be walking really tall. I guess Manchester United fans will be forgiving to David Moyes as their rise to decent levels will bring less worries but they will not be in Europe by their current form, especially through a top four finish. See the numbers below courtesy of www.soccerway.com.

TABLES

#TeamMPWDLFADPLast 5 matchesH2H
12718634921+2860WDWWD
22718545227+2559WDLWD
32618356927+4257WDLWW
42717557035+3556WWWDW
52715573633+350LWWDL
6Previous rank: 72713684331+1245WDDLW
7Previous rank: 62612953727+1045LLWLD
8Previous rank: 927124113338-540WLLLD
9Previous rank: 82710983832+639LWDWD
10Previous rank: 112787123134-331WWWWD
11Previous rank: 132786132931-230WLWDL
12Previous rank: 102777133640-428LDWLW
13Previous rank: 122777132737-1028LDLLW
14Previous rank: 162777132039-1928WLDLD
15Previous rank: 142769122742-1527LDDWL
16Previous rank: 152682161836-1826LWLWW
1727413103139-825DDLDL
182666142642-1624LLWWD
192757151948-2922LDLWL
202763182759-3221DLDLL
UEFA Champions League
Champions League qualifiers
UEFA Europa League
Relegation